"The election is nearly a week away and predictions are cheaper than a cup of bad coffee. “We see good news for Republicans,” says The New York Times in its blog, fivethirtyeight.com “Although not necessarily better news for them than is already implied by the polling.” So Democrats say they will do better than expected. And Republicans are all but promising they will run the next government. Of course every prediction is backed by the latest polls.

But here is one prediction you won’t read in the press: Not a single poll will capture what’s going on with Indian Country voters during this election cycle. The science of polling doesn’t work very well with small population groups living in rural or isolated locations.

That’s too bad because it would be interesting and useful to know what’s in the mind of American Indian and Alaska Native voters this cycle.

Consider the race for U.S. Senator from Alaska. The only way that Lisa Murkowski returns to that office is if Alaska Native voters turn out in large numbers and write her name on the ballot. (She lost the Republican primary but is continuing her candidacy as a write-in candidate.)

The Alaska Federation of Natives last week endorsed Murkowski by acclamation at its annual convention here in Fairbanks. This was after the senator gave a keynote talk where she listed at length many of the accomplishments in Congress related to Alaska Native issues."

Get the Story:
Native American votes will defy election predictions (Mark Trahant 10/25)

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