Blog: Indian voters could turn Arizona into battleground state

Wednesday, October 24, 2012  

"Arizona is a Republican-leaning state largely because Maricopa County is a Republican-leaning county. With about 60 percent of the electorate, Maricopa County’s political preferences tend to carry the day.

Maricopa County is so big that even though it leans Republican, Democrats get the bulk of their votes there, too. But the main Democratic-leaning county in Arizona is Pima County, which is more than one-third Hispanic and includes Tucson, where the University of Arizona is situated

Politics in Arizona’s less populated counties tends to be determined by a mix of demographics and religion. Democrats normally carry Coconino County, which includes Flagstaff and is about a quarter Native American and 15 percent Hispanic; Apache County, which is about 72 percent American Indian; and Santa Cruz County, which is almost 83 percent Hispanic.

Graham County is reliably Republican. It is 31 percent Hispanic but also 26 percent Mormon. Navajo County has been more marginally Republican. It is 43 percent American Indian but 20 percent Mormon."

Get the Story:
FiveThirtyEight: Why Arizona Isn’t a Battleground State (and Why It May Be Soon) (The New York TImes 10/23)